Counterinsurgency Scorecard : Afghanistan in Early 2013 Relative to Insurgencies Since World War II

Abstract

A key finding of previous RAND research on insurgencies worldwide since World War II was that an overall score on a scorecard of 15 equally weighted good and 11 equally weighted bad counterinsurgency factors and practices perfectly discriminated conflicts’ historical outcomes. Using the scorecard approach and an expert elicitation (Delphi) exercise, a RAND study sought to extend the findings to the case of Afghanistan in early 2013.